Saturday 27th April 2y3g28
“Best horse in the race and a repeat of his York run in one of last seasons hottest nursuries is good enough to take this”.
Despite some smaller field sizes, quite an interesting betting day at Haydock and a few decent bets to be made.
2:10 Haydock – Assessing the Competitive Field 3w41
All races on the inner track on Saturday, which means, on heavy ground there is no historical draw bias to factor in.
A competitve event, Cold Stare is the obvious one. He arrives on the back of a win last weekend so fitness is assured and he is at his best on soft ground.
Despite a 6 lb rise for his latest success, 74 is a mark he can still win off. It’s all there and pretty obvious and this is reflected in the price. 7/2 is about right, I’d not be surprised if he wins but I’m happy to walk past with no juice in that price.
Alternative picks: Heartrate and Havana Rum 366k
Havana Rum looks a little overpriced at 16’s in a race where conditions will suit, BUT…
The one I want to be involved with and, as I type IMO incorrectly priced – HEARTRATE.
If you want to see a horse with a high knee action, watch one of his replays. Done? Ok, that action would suggest soft ground is a requirement for Heartrate to show his best, he hits the ground pretty hard.
Rewind…to the 14th Sept last year – Ffos Las.
Ignore the official going description – good!!! That’s nonsense, it was soft and that was the last time Heartrate had the chance to race on ground with some cut. It’s forecast heavy at Haydock on Satuday.
Since Ffos Las he has raced mainly on the all weather tracks, a couple of respectable runs, I expect him to be back to near his best under Saturdays conditions and a repeat of the Ffos Las run would be good enough to be very involved here.
I make him a 6/1 shot, plenty of 16’s about Friday evening so an obvious bet.
2:45 Haydock – Betting on Gweedore with Confidence 3r536i
All about GWEEDORE here.
I’ve priced him 7/2, Friday evening and plenty of 13/2 available.
His chance traces back to his York 3rd behind Montassib at the end of last season (previously covered here). Similar sentiments applied for his chances on Saturday.
Yes, it’s his seasonal debut….fitness and wellbeing being taken on trust. I feel that’s compenstated for in the price of 13/2 and am happy to play.
May be conterintuative to back a second in the race in the face of a strong fancy? I never have a problem backing more than one, back as many as you like…as long as you believe the price is value against however you gauge it.
So…I have half an eye on RHOSCOLYN. I think he is capable of winning off 98 and he’ll encounter his optimum conditions on Saturday.
Rhoscolyn ran last weekend, 5th of 5 might not sound that promising but, it was a better race than the Haydock race and should mean he is fit and ready to run near his best.
16’s with the books, just touching 20’s on Betfair with volume yet to fill up. Hopefully a bit better than 20’s coming but, I’ll be happy to stake at that price.
3:20 Haydock – Value in Act of Violence 381kk
Small stakes, but ACT OF VIOLENCE looks overpriced here.
Yes, you need to push past last weekends stuffing by the reopposing Shelbourne but, the evidence of the clock from his Catterick win last season gives Act Of Violence a much better chance than the current 16/1.
Take out last weeks run and he’d be near the head of the market. It happened, but Act Of Violence was considerably handled once beaten.
At the price and with a run under his belt, I’m happy to play hoping he returns to the Catterick level of perfomance.
4:28 Haydock – Best Bets in a Tight 5-Runner Field 3h591t
For a 5 runner race, this is a decent contest with 3 of the runners on handicap marks they can definitely win races from and one runner of some potential.
Assessing Aragon Castle, Nellie Laylax, and Von Baer s1d5i
The 3…
Nellie Laylax, Von Baer & ARAGON CASTLE.
How I priced this (100% book)…
Aragon Castle 2/1
Nellie Laylax 11/4
Von Baer 10/3
Offer And Receive 13/2
Invincible Aura 22/1
So, while there are 3 horses I consider on winnable marks, at the prices Aragon Castle is the one I want to be with. 4/1 available about what I make a 2’s chance.
The Nellie Laylax price vs chance I make about right, but I’ll watch the market. Above 3’s and he’d be of interest. Von Baer cuurently priced 5/2 so I’m happy to let go.
Offer And Receive & Invincible Aura available at 5/2 & 8/1 respectively so…of no interest.
Aragon Castle for me at 4/1. Best horse in the race and a repeat of his York run in one of last seasons hottest nursuries is good enough to take this.
5:00 Haydock – A Confident Pick: Amancio 2r4c3b
Nothing too complicated here, AMANCIO is the best horse in the race. Should be favourite and is currently 3rd best in the betting.
4/1 looks more than fair, I can see Amancio going off nearer 2/1.
Like I said, best horse on show here, conditions to suit and having run at Windsor on Monday there are no doubts on fitness.
